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Skrivet av Ingrid Eckerman
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2012-07-31 21:44 |
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Den ursprungliga rapporten "Limits to growth" publicerades av den s.k. Rom-klubben för 40 år sedan. Nu kommer en uppdaterad rapport, som försöker göra sig en bild av situationen 2052.
En sammanfattning:
- While the process of adapting humanity to the planet’s limitations has started, the human response could be too slow.
- The current dominant global economies, particularly the United States, will stagnate. Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies (referred to as ‘BRISE’ in the Report) will progress.
- But there will still be 3 billion poor in 2052.
- China will be a success story, because of its ability to act.
- Global population will peak in 2042, because of falling fertility in urban areas
- Global GDP will grow much slower than expected, because of slower productivity growth in mature economies.
- CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow and cause +2°C in 2052; temperatures will reach +2.8°C in 2080, which may well trigger self-reinforcing climate change.
The count-up to 2052: An overarching framework for action The Club of Rome, maj 2012
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